Elsewhere · Essay
Quantifying Conspiracy: A Mathematical Model for Evaluating the Validity of Theories
A scoring model that weights verifiable statements, source expertise, and obscured data — tested on Higgs, climate, and COVID-origin claims.
This study presents a quantitative model for evaluating the validity of theories, from scientific hypotheses to conspiracy claims. The model scores the quality and verifiability of supporting statements, the credibility and expertise of sources, potential bias, reliance on obscured or nonexistent data, and public perception.
It was tested on the heliocentric model of the solar system, the existence of the Higgs boson, theories about the origin of COVID-19, and the “plandemic” claim. The model separated well-supported theories from weakly supported ones. Weighting high-quality verifiable statements and expert sources moved the Higgs score up after a first pass that undercounted published experimental work.
The paper also names the hard case: theories that rest on obscured or nonexistent data. There the score can rank the relative strength of what is on the table. It cannot declare the claim true or false.
Variables
The full inventory includes verifiable and unverifiable statements, source credibility and expertise, funding and researcher bias, reliance on obscured data, incentive to lie, potential for a cover-up, public perception, historical precedent, scientific plausibility, consistency, and contextual fit. A later simplified set keeps the levers that moved the score: anomalies, verifiable and unverifiable statements, credibility, incentive to lie, cover-up potential, obscured data, expert agreement, and public perception.
Cases
Higgs boson and human-induced climate change score as strongly supported once expert weight is in the formula. Later cases in the full paper take on COVID-origin claims and the “plandemic” narrative. Claims that lean on unverifiable statements and obscured data drop.
Limit
A number cannot finish an argument that is missing its evidence. Used with other reading, the score makes the missing parts visible.
Full paper
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